GPI Research · Updated twice a month
Research & Insight
Our desk's technical analysis of ocean schedule recovery and freight rate direction, the same reads our pricing and operations teams use. Compiled by Gian Geralcus, Technical Analyst.
How GPI Research works
- Two axes only: schedule recovery and price direction; every release answers one of them.
- Published sources: Sea-Intelligence, Drewry (WCI, Intra-Asia, blank sailings), and SEKO, always cited with release dates.
- Desk labels, not benchmarks: Severe / High / Elevated / Easing are GPI planning labels; figures are as published by each source and can be revised by their publishers.
- Validated before use: live sailing, cutoff, and terminal status still come from carrier, terminal, and agent confirmation at each handoff.
- Top models, analyst-signed: top models process and cross-check public data faster than manual review allows; models assist, they do not author, and every conclusion is reviewed and signed off by the technical analyst before publication.
GPI Research informs planning; it is not a guarantee or a prediction for any specific shipment. Reviewed twice a month (weeks 1–2 and 3–4); next: mid-October 2026.
Release archive
- 1 October 2026CurrentDelays projected to run through Lebaran 2027; rate increases expected from November.
- 8 September 2026August reliability and regional disruption data.
- 16 July 2026First publication of the ocean schedule variability advisory.
Updated in place, nothing is deleted: expired event notices move out of current context into release notes, and dated figures stay in the archive and sources. The mid-October review will check the 1 October Drewry WCI print, the Intra-Asia streak, Tanjung Priok status, and the four recovery signals.
Customer questions, straight answers
The questions our desk hears most during this window, answered the same way we answer them by email.
Will my shipment be delayed?
Delay risk is currently severe: global on-time was 49.9% in August and Asia 32.3%. Whether your shipment slips depends on carrier, service, and route; we treat every ETD/ETA as a working estimate and reconfirm at each handoff.
When will freight rates stop increasing?
Our desk expects increases from November 2026 through the Lebaran season (est. March 2027). Drewry sees only near-term stabilisation before that; this is our planning view, not a guarantee.
Is now a good time to ship from China?
Book earlier than usual: Golden Week has thinned capacity and 58 blank sailings run through 1 November. The restart after Chinese New Year (February 2027) is also expected to be slow.
Does the Bangkok flooding affect my cargo?
Air cargo through Suvarnabhumi is embargoed 1–6 October and the rail shuttle to Laem Chabang is suspended; ocean cargo is affected mainly via hub transits. Confirm Thailand legs with our team before dispatch.
How is GPI Research produced?
Twice a month (weeks 1–2 and 3–4; next: mid-October 2026). Compiled by Gian Geralcus, Technical Analyst, with GPI’s pricing and operations desks; top models cross-check the data, and every conclusion is analyst-reviewed before publication.
Need the latest status for your shipment?
For a shipment-specific read, request a schedule review: we compare direct versus transshipment exposure and confirm booking and cutoff status.