Customer advisory ·
Ocean Schedule Variability
Long-haul services and short regional feeder routes can face different points of disruption. ETD/ETA are shipment-specific working estimates and may change after the latest carrier, agent, or terminal confirmation. July reliability was the weakest point this year, Asian hub on-time performance fell across the board, and vessel capacity is still being absorbed by delays—so it is worth planning September and early October shipments with extra room.
Current planning context
This does not mean every port or shipment is delayed. At this review point, the latest Portcast weekly snapshot (data week 16–22 August) showed an uneven pattern: Shanghai in the high-congestion band with a roughly 3.5-day median vessel wait, Belawan and several other ports in the medium band, and multiple hubs flagged for long-tail delays where only some vessels wait far longer than average. Sea-Intelligence's 26 August release reported July global schedule reliability at 56.4%—the lowest of 2026 so far—with late arrivals averaging 6.06 days, a month-on-month drop of 6.1 percentage points. August figures are due in late September.
The port-level release that followed on 7 September showed the decline was broad rather than isolated: all 14 major Asian ports tracked recorded lower on-time performance in July. Singapore came in at 43.2% (-5.7 percentage points), Port Klang at 33.3%, and Busan at 40.9%. Sea-Intelligence notes that the resulting backlog at Asian gateways may work through to head-haul lanes over the coming months. For customers, the practical read is a planning one: allow more buffer on transshipment routings, get documents and cargo-ready data in early, and raise a revised ETA with your buyer as soon as it looks likely rather than after the fact.
The pressure is structural, not a one-week event. Roughly 5% of global deep-sea capacity—about 1.7 million TEU—is currently tied up in vessel delays, well above the ~2.2% pre-pandemic norm. Drewry's 28 August update notes the market is heading into September "with little sign of cooling": elevated rates, shifting capacity, weather disruption at Asian gateways, and Panama Canal constraints. Uneven schedule reliability is likely to keep affecting routing and space planning through September and into early October 2026.
Review cadence: weekly while schedule disruption remains material.
Monthly outlook
A simple month-by-month view of what the market data is pointing to. These are planning signals, not predictions for a specific shipment.
August 2026
Elevated disruptionAlready bumpy — and tightening
- Schedule reliability for July was confirmed at 56.4%, the weakest month of 2026 so far, with late arrivals averaging 6.06 days.
- Port-level figures released on 7 September show all 14 major Asian ports declining, including Singapore at 43.2% and Port Klang at 33.3% on-time.
- About 1.7 million TEU of global capacity is tied up in vessel delays—roughly 5% of deep-sea capacity.
September 2026
Tight space likelyExpect less room, more rolling risk
- Carriers have announced about 45 blank sailings on major East–West trades from 31 August into early October (≈6% of departures), over half of them on Transpacific services.
- Cancelled sailings mean fewer departure options, so cargo can roll to the next available vessel.
- Sea-Intelligence notes the Asian port backlog may work through to head-haul lanes in the coming months.
- Plan bookings earlier than usual, keep delivery promises flexible, and confirm cutoffs directly with the booking team.
Long-haul / deep-sea services
Many deep-sea voyages depend on a multi-port vessel rotation. Blank sailings, service changes, extended vessel cycles, or pressure at one gateway can shift later calls and reduce access to the preferred departure—even when overall space appears available.
Short-haul / regional connections
Shorter distance does not remove schedule risk. Direct regional services have their own port, weather, equipment, and operating exposure. On feeder or transshipment itineraries, timing may also depend on mainline timing, hub operations, cutoff, connection windows, and onward feeder sequencing.
Why timing is difficult to predict
The following are possible contributors reported across the market. They are not confirmed root causes for a particular booking or shipment.
Network and vessel rotation
Blank sailings, service adjustments, capacity management, rerouting, and extended vessel cycles can shift later calls on a rotation.
Port and terminal operations
Vessel bunching, berth or yard pressure, weather, equipment failure, labour limits, and infrastructure work can affect handling time.
Regional feeder connections
On feeder or transshipment itineraries, a short leg may depend on mainline timing, hub operations, connection windows, and feeder sequencing.
Inland and equipment constraints
Container positioning, trucking or rail capacity, terminal appointments, and access restrictions can add local delay.
Shipment readiness
Late cargo data, documents, cargo-ready dates, or cutoff preparation do not cause congestion, but they can reduce available recovery options.
What customers should do
- Share cargo details, documents, and cargo-ready information early.
- Build a realistic buffer and avoid firm delivery commitments before the latest status is confirmed.
- Compare direct and transshipment options, including cutoff and connection exposure.
- Tell your buyer or consignee early when an ETA looks likely to move—an early, realistic message is easier to manage than repeated revisions.
- Reconfirm booking, cutoff, and the latest carrier, agent, and terminal status at key handoffs.
- Plan September shipments with extra lead time while delay-driven capacity pressure persists.
How GPI can help
GPI can help review available route and sailing information, compare direct versus transshipment exposure, and request current booking, cutoff, and status confirmation. GPI does not control carrier schedules, space allocation, ports, terminals, customs, feeder sequencing, or recovery timing.
Cost context (Drewry WCI)
Rate context — not delay data
Drewry's 3 September World Container Index assessment left the composite broadly stable versus late August, but the individual lanes moved in different directions: Shanghai–Los Angeles +5% and Shanghai–New York +3%, against Shanghai–Genoa -10% and Shanghai–Rotterdam -5%. Drewry links the softer Asia–Europe legs to carriers returning to Suez routings and the capacity that brings back to the trade. This is spot-rate movement only—it does not describe schedule reliability or the timing of any particular shipment, and your quoted freight still depends on the actual carrier, service, and booking.
How we work with this data (GPI practice)
Operational safety measures & performance capabilities — informed by published market data
Our pricing and operations desks use published market benchmarks as planning inputs, not as a substitute for carrier-level confirmation. The working pattern:
- Monday — rate direction: Drewry World Container Index for ocean spot context (3 September: composite broadly stable, LA +5% / NY +3%, Genoa -10% / Rotterdam -5%) and Baltic/TAC Air Freight Indices for air-hub volatility.
- Midweek — price validation: live carrier offers compared against transaction-level benchmarks such as Freightos FBX, so a rate that looks out of line gets renegotiated or re-routed before it reaches your quote.
- Friday — schedule review: the latest Sea-Intelligence Global Liner Performance release (July 2026: 56.4% global on-time, 6.06-day average delay, Singapore 43.2%, Port Klang 33.3%) to see which services and hub routings are under timing pressure.
- Measurement on a real-time basis: shipment measurements (weight/volume, air & sea) are taken from the data provided by the weighing party at handling time — terminal, airline, or carrier — not from last week's figures, and we pass the chargeable-weight calculation through to you transparently.
- Validation before use: every benchmark is cross-checked against the latest carrier/terminal confirmation before it drives any shipment decision.
Schedule risk read early
Monthly reliability releases show which carrier groups and hub ports are running behind. When a customer's routing relies on a weaker-performing service or a congested hub, we raise the timing risk with the consignee before the vessel works at the port—not after.
Air-hub sensitivity
Air freight reprices faster than ocean. Hub-level indices (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore outbound) move week to week, so for Singapore-transit air consolidations we keep quote validity short and re-check rates before locking a rate with the customer.
Honest capability wording
We do not promise fixed transit times or predict recovery dates. What we commit to is process: comparing direct vs transshipment exposure, reconfirming cutoffs at each handoff, and communicating timing changes as early as the data allows.
Benchmarks referenced: Drewry World Container Index (weekly, ocean spot), Baltic Exchange / TAC Air Freight Indices (weekly, air hubs), Freightos FBX (transaction-level ocean), Sea-Intelligence Global Liner Performance (monthly, schedule reliability). All are public market references—they inform our planning but do not describe any specific customer shipment, and published figures can be revised by their publishers.
References & market updates
Public updates provide planning context only. The latest schedule indication, space, cost, transit time, and shipment-specific cause still depend on the actual carrier, service, route, terminal, cargo, and documents.
Portcast weekly congestion snapshot
Published 24 Aug 2026; vessel-wait medians and long-tail flags for 16–22 Aug, including high congestion at Shanghai and medium at Belawan.
Sea-Intelligence schedule reliability
26 Aug 2026 release; July 2026 global schedule reliability fell to 56.4%, with late arrivals averaging 6.06 days.
Sea-Intelligence port on-time performance (7 Sep)
July 2026 port-level release; all 14 major Asian ports declined, with Singapore at 43.2% and Port Klang at 33.3% on-time.
Sea-Intelligence blank sailings tracker
Structural shift analysis; blanked capacity on major East-West trades grew up to 4.6x faster than fleet capacity in 2026-1H.
Sea-Intelligence reliability volatility
Volatility analysis; nine of the ten most unstable trade lanes over the past 24 months are newcomers versus pre-pandemic.
Sea-Intelligence capacity absorbed in delays
About 1.7 million TEU of deep-sea capacity is tied up by vessel delays—roughly 5% of global capacity versus a ~2.2% pre-pandemic norm.
Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker (28 Aug)
45 blank sailings announced on major East–West trades from week 36 to week 40 (31 Aug – 4 Oct); about 6% of scheduled departures, over half on Transpacific.
Drewry World Container Index (3 Sep)
Weekly spot-rate assessment; the composite was broadly stable versus late August (27 Aug: $4,473/40ft) while individual lanes split — Shanghai–Los Angeles +5% and Shanghai–New York +3%, against Shanghai–Genoa -10% and Shanghai–Rotterdam -5%.